【#第一文档网# 导语】以下是®第一文档网的小编为您整理的《侵台台风的最低中心气压与最大风速之极值统计》，欢迎阅读！
侵台颱風的最低中心氣壓與最大風速之極值統計 張憲國 彭雅琴 摘 要 本文選擇五種極值分佈並利用力矩法、最大概似法與最小二乘法等三種推估參數方法，探討1958年至2000年侵台颱風的最低氣壓與最大風速的合適極值函數及其極值統計特性。由結果發現，颱風最低氣壓年計選用極值分佈以力矩法weibull分佈較適合，其推估50年颱風中心氣壓值為878.8mb。將颱風資料依其來源分為後期的衛星影像資料及早期的航照資料，比較兩者所推算之50年週期颱風最低中心氣壓之迴歸大小，分別為854.5mb及869.7mb，顯示早期資料與後期資料分佈有所差異。而颱風最大風速極值分佈以最大概法偉伯(B=0)分佈較適合，其推估值為180.2Knots。而當資料少時推估颱風風速其結果不佳。 I Extreme statistics for minimum central pressure and maximum wind velocity of typhoons passing around Taiwan Student ：Ya-Chin Pon Advisor：Dr. Hsien-Kuo Chang Department of Civil Engineering National Chiao Tung University ABSTRACT This article has two targets, one is to take advantage of the 6-hours optimum paths of typhoons that happened and passed around Taiwan during 1949 to 1999 to research the spatial distribution of typhoon. Next the 6-hours optimum paths were classified into groups by the minimum central pressure and moving velocity, and it appeared that the paths of typhoon center most fall in between 117.5E~125E and 17.5N~20N, and the frequency occurred most and slanted towards East with the strength of typhoons getting larger and larger. Besides that, comparing the Hualien Harbor（121.8E；24N）in 500km range inside, the number of optimum paths each area of all types of typhoons in different distances , it appeared that the first and second degree of typhoons are principal occurred near the Hualien Harbor 300km inside, and no 5 degree typhoon. In the distances between 300km and 500km, the 5 degree typhoon doesn’t occurred frequently, and all degrees of typhoon is decreased steadily. Getting closer to the Huanlien Harbor, the moving velocity is much faster, especially in the range of 25km~30km per hour. II 本文来源：https://www.dywdw.cn/ab32c44a6bec0975f565e255.html
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2022-12-05
